Inhalable Insulin: The Future Is Now

Guest content from Michael Shulman, editor of ChangeWave Biotech Investor:

The annual confab of the American Diabetes Association is underway and a question on the minds of many is “Will inhalable insulin succeed?” Billions of dollars have been put into research and clinical trials, one product Exubera from Nektar (NKTR) and Pfizer (PFE) has been approved yet many in the medical community and on Wall Street are skeptical.

They are wrong. Inhalable insulin, if properly marketed and sold, will be a runaway hit according to ChangeWave surveys. ChangeWave (changewave.com), where I work, surveys physicians and other health care workers and every survey since 20002 shows inhalable insulin will be a blockbuster not just with patients new to insulin but those already using insulin.

The failure to date of the one product on the market, Exubera, is a sales issue, not a patient demand issue. If Pfizer had hired someone to tell them how to make a mess of the product launch, that consultant did a great job and the company is now re-launching the product with a campaign that includes direct to consumer advertising. But the weakness in sales to date have put a cloud over the products and companies also working on new inhalable insulin products: Aradigm (ARDM) and Mannkind (MNKD) and is also weighing on the stock of Alkermes (ALKS). Aradigm is partnered with Novo Nordisk, the market share leader in conventional insulin; Mannkind is going it alone; Allkermes is partnered with diabetes heavyweight Eli Lilly (LLY).

I follow these companies — I write an investment newsletter focusing on biotech stocks and I see no hesitation — they are all charging ahead. And I believe inhalable insulin will be a great success once properly marketed — surveys don’t lie.

Could I be too optimistic? No. ChangeWave surveys predicted Amlyin’s Byetta would be a runaway success – it is – when Wall Street geniuses talking to highly specialized endocrinologists resistant to change said it would fail. The same will happen with inhalable insulin, for if Pfizer does not figure it out, surely companies with experience in this market such as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly will.

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